Sunday, July 28. Wrong again. Two weeks ago, as I was writing my last column, I thought the President had resolved to stay in the race. Then Covid hit him, and his polling continued to tank, and his strong stump speeches in Detroit and Las Vegas weren’t turning the tide. It was becoming clear that he had lost the confidence of Americans, and nothing he did was winning it back or offsetting the incessant media drone.
So in the space of a few hours, he recast the entire election. Sadly, somberly but resolutely, he withdrew, putting the fate of the country above his own. Minutes later, he endorsed his Vice-President. With that, he seems to have struck a chord, with virtually the entire Democratic Party applauding his selfless decision and embracing Kamala Harris as our nominee and our next President.
There were a few critics who argued that the Vice-President should not have been “coronated” by the backroom bosses. But that’s really not what happened at all. Virtually all the credible alternative nominees took themselves out of the running and chose to support Harris. The grass-roots voted with their feet and their money. ACTBlue reported utterly record-breaking donations, over $50 million, in the 24 hours after President Biden’s announcement, and that total topped $100 million by a day later – all small-dollar donations. By today, they hit $200 million, with 2/3 of those being first-time givers. The major donor crowd was all-in as well; the superPAC supporting Harris reported over $150 million in donations or pledges in the three days following her announcement. The Harris campaign reported over 170,000 people registered to volunteer through their web site, again an unprecedented showing of support from the grass-roots. Two days after Biden’s announcement, there was a Zoom call on which 40,000 African-American women participated; shortly after that, a Zoom call for African-American men had 20,000 participants; and then a Zoom call, which broke all world records, had 160,000 White Women for Kamala participating. Lastly, non-partisan voter registration groups reported over 100,000 on-line voter registrations in this last week; prior to this, the biggest surge in voter registrations came last year, on Voter Registration Day, when Taylor Swift went on-line to urge all her fans to register, generating 38,000 new registrations.
And it seems it’s not just the party faithful that like Kamala. All the polling is showing significant surges in her favor, with her pulling well ahead in traditionally Democratic states (like Minnesota and New Hampshire) and pulling at least even in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Lastly, the news cycles have been dominated by positive stories about the new Democratic nominee, her winning support from a majority of convention delegates, her fundraising success, her strong stump speeches, her Vice-Presidential pick. Donald Trump is suddenly back on page 17. Further, when the GOP ticket has hit the front page, it’s mostly about JD Vance and what incredibly stupid or offensive thing he said years ago or more recently. In the last few days, it has pivoted to whether Vance will survive on the ticket, how he might be replaced, what the deadlines are for replacing him. Sound familiar? There is a juicy irony here as Vance and the GOP get the treatment that President Biden was getting.
These news cycles themselves drive polling, which in turn drives the news cycles. That can turn into a virtuous cycle, each driving the other higher, or a death spiral, as they drive each other down. President Biden was on the receiving end of that death spiral, but Vice-President Harris seems to be riding that virtuous cycle.
Within a week, Vice-President Harris will be picking a VP of her own for the ticket. My favorite is Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, a centrist Democrat who won election in 2016, when Trump carried his state, and again in 2020, when Trump again carried the state. Another intriguing pick would be Sen. Mark Kelly or Arizona – a genuine war hero, naval aviator, astronaut and space shuttle pilot. He might well help us carry Arizona; further, if he were elected and had to give up his Senate seat, Arizona has a Democratic Governor – Katie Hobbs – who would ensure another Democrat would take his place. And, lastly and perhaps most famously, his wife Gabby Giffords was a U.S. Representative, until she was almost assassinated by a lone gunman. Kelly and Giffords have been at the forefront of the fight for gun control, and Giffords’ personal bravery has been truly inspiring to many Americans.
Although I think Gov. Cooper would add more to the ticket from an electoral perspective, my guess is that the Vice-President will go with Sen. Mark Kelly.
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