Read the Tea Leaves Early Tuesday Night

Political Notes

by Jon Fuhrman

 

Saturday, Nov. 2.  Finally, Tuesday night arrives.  You can barely sit still.  No way you’ll wait until Wednesday or Thursday to know the results, one way or the other.  So, are there some early clues we can rely upon – some early read of the results so we know whether to pop the champagne or curl up in a fetal position?

 

There might be.  Some states close their polls relatively early, and we might get some good clues on both the Presidential race and control of the House, but the Senate may hang in the balance for a while.

 

First up are Indiana and Kentucky, and I think Kentucky is the more interesting.  Polls close at 6:00 pm local time, but while half the state (with the big cities of Lexington and Louisville) is in the Eastern time zone, the other half is in the Central time zone.  So they are not likely to start releasing results until all the polls in the entire state close, which would be 4 pm our time. 

 

Kentucky (8 electoral votes) should be a solid Trump state.  He won by 26% (550,000 votes) in 2020 and 30% (570,000 votes) in 2016.  Neither party has done any polling, advertising or significant organizing, so it is sort of an “organic” indicator of how people are feeling – how will they vote without any outside influence, other than the national media that everyone sees.  Interestingly, despite the heavy GOP lean, Kentucky elected and then re-elected a popular Democratic Governor, Andy Beshears, first by a mere 5,000 votes (0.4%) in 2019 but then by a more substantial 5% (68,000 votes) last year.  So they can swing, even though it seems unlikely.  Kentucky doesn’t report on the number of early votes or absentee votes cast ahead of the election.  Watch the margins.  The earlier reports are likely to include more of the vote from Lexington and Louisville, since they are in the Eastern time zone where polls close one hour earlier.  Anything less than a 23 - 25% edge for Trump could suggest that his appeal in rural areas is not as great as forecast.  Less than 15% and Trump is in real trouble; the folks in Kentucky should be reasonably representative of those in rural areas of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, even though they haven’t been subjected to the intense bombardment that voters in swing states have received.  A percentage more than 32% for Trump bodes ill for the Harris team.

 

Next up is Georgia (16 EVs).  Their polls close at 7pm (4 pm our time).  They’ve had a ton of early voting, both in person and by absentee ballot – over 3.83 million so far (and only 4.93 million votes total were cast in 2020, with Biden winning by that famous 11,779 vote margin).  Fortunately, their state law says absentee ballots can be verified as they come in, and, as of October 21, actually opened and stacked up ready for the tally machines.  So as soon as polls close, they will start running the ballots through those machines.

 

The election day votes will take longer to process and report, but likely not more than 3 or 4 hours (especially given the number of early votes cast).  So by 6 pm our time we’ll have some early indications, and by 8 pm likely have a definitive answer – did we, or did we not, win Georgia.  If we did, and the margin is outside 20,000 – 30,000 votes, then it’s pretty much game over for Trump (both because Georgia is critical to their electoral vote tally, and because it suggests other states, like North Carolina, might well break along similar lines).  If we lose, we’re still in it – we could, without Georgia, still take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and eke out a win.  The early votes, as of Friday, were slightly (48% - 45%) more Republican than Democratic, even though Dems have a 16% edge in voter registration (with 28% unaffiliated).  So you might expect the early vote to be slightly more Republican, with Dems catching up in the election day turnout (even though that is the opposite of what we saw in 2020).

 

Worst case scenario, one or the other candidate leads by a mere few thousand votes.  That means recounts, law suits, who knows what else, which might or might not be resolved before the Dec. 15th and January 6th deadlines.

 

One interesting “micro-indicator” might be Fayette County, just southwest of Atlanta.  This has been traditional heavy GOP territory, but Sen Warnock almost carried the county.  If the Vice-President can hold her loss to less than 5% here, it would bode well for her chances state-wide.

 

Next up is North Carolina (16 EVs), where polls close at 7:30 pm local time (4:30 our time).  Here also state law allows absentee ballots to be verified and even counted (but the results not announced) prior to the closing of polls.  Here also there has been huge early voting (3.86 million votes cast as of Thursday, versus 5.4 million votes cast in 2020).  The partisan split in early voting is extremely narrow – virtually equal numbers of Reps, Dems and independents (registration is 35% Dem, 30% Rep, 32% unaffiliated).  Trump carried North Carolina in 2020, but only by 1.3% (75,000 votes).

 

By about 7:30 pm our time, there should be substantial results.  Again, watch the margin, although the reporting might be complicated because of delays due to the hurricane damage in the western counties, which tend to be more Republican.  Any margin over 2 – 3% for Trump is not good; a 2 – 3% edge for Harris should be enough to withstand late reporting from the western counties (which are not heavily populated).  Watch particularly Mecklenburg County (the areas around Charlotte).  That’s been the focus of intense Democratic GOTV efforts.  If the raw number of votes, as well as the margin, are significantly better than 2020, that’s a good sign for Dems.  As with Georgia, a Dem win here is nearly lethal; a Rep win is survivable, but not good news.

 

Also, pay attention to the Gubernatorial and other 11 state-wide Constitutional offices.  Dem Att. Gen. Josh Stein is running for Governor against Rep. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, an African-American who nonetheless said he was open to the return of slavery.  Wait, did I read that right?  Yes, indeed.  Robinson is a certified crazy, somewhere out past Neptune.  But his colleague Michelle Morrow is even wackier, if that is possible – in 2020, she advocated for the televised execution, for treason, of former President Obama and President-elect Biden (just sort of skipping over messy details like a trial by jury).

 

Josh Stein is, in all the polling, running at least 10% ahead of Robinson, and in some polls 15 – 20%.  This is a race that could have coattails up the ballot as well as down.  Stein should run at least 15% ahead of Robinson; if it’s over 20%, it’s hard to see how that margin doesn’t help both Harris and his down ballot colleagues in North Carolina and Democratic legislative candidates.

 

Also, keep an eye on the 1st Congressional District here.  It’s a “Toss-Up” district, in the far northeast portion of the state, with Democratic incumbent Don Davis trying to hang on.  If Davis loses, it’s a bad sign for Dems in the House; if he holds easily, it’s a modestly good sign.

Pretty much everyone else on the east coast closes their polls at 8 pm local time (5 pm our time).  Most states should be able to start reporting results by 10 pm local time (7 pm our time), with substantive results starting to show up by 8 pm our time.  I’d focus on 2 states:  New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

 

New Hampshire should be a reliably Democratic state.  They also have two Congressional seats, one
“Likely” and one “Lean” Democratic.  If we don’t win both, it’s a bad omen for control of the House.  But down ballot races are also interesting.  The state legislature has a very narrow GOP edge in both houses: in the House, 197 GOP, 191 Dems, 1 independent, and 11 vacancies; in the Senate, 14 Reps and 10 Dems.  Democrats are hoping to flip both houses.  In the Governor’s race, Kelly Ayotte, a GOP former U.S. Senator, has maintained a small lead in the polls over Democrat Joyce Craig, but this will be an early test of Harris coattails.  If Craig pulls ahead, and/or Dems flip the State Legislature, it suggests Dems will have a good night.

 

Turning to Pennsylvania, news may be slow here.  Absentee ballot processing and counting can’t start until 7 am on Election Day.  Fortunately, there has been a reasonable early vote turnout – almost 1.7 million ballots, about a quarter of the overall expected turnout, with a very heavy Democratic edge of 57% to 33% Rep and 10% independent.  This is way more pronounced than the registration edge, where Dems have only a narrow margin.  In 2020, Biden won by 80,000 votes (50% to 48.8%), while in 2016 Trump won by 44,000 votes (48.6% to 47.9%).  In both elections, over 6 million folks voted, so these margins are incredibly small. 

 

Early results typically favor the GOP, with Dems catching up as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh report later and as absentee ballots are slowly processed (which this time may be even more Democratic leaning, based on the early vote numbers above).  So the early numbers are probably not going to be very informative, unless Harris moves out to an early lead, which would be pretty startling.  (For those ultra-geek data wonks, if Dems win 62% of the early vote, roughly in line with the Democratic vote and half the independents, they only need 46% of the election day vote to get a majority, so early reports above 46% should be reason for cautious optimism.)

 

You can, however, also watch four Congressional Districts, mostly in the suburbs around Philadelphia, where results may come in more quickly.  In CD – 1, GOP incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick has hung on for many terms.  The district has an exactly even PVI (a measure of how the district compares to all other districts nationally), and it covers Bucks County.  Fitzpatrick has been a leader in the moderate wing of the GOP, but when push comes to shove, he has reliably supported Speaker Johnson on just about every issue.  The district is rated as “Likely” R, but Democratic Ashley Ehasz, a West Point grad, Apache helicopter pilot and commander, Oxford graduate, has turned the race into a real dog fight.  Some polling had her within a point or two (with Harris polling well ahead of Trump), and at least one poll put her ahead.  If she pulls off an upset, that puts a real hole in the GOP House ranks, and it suggests a good night for Dems up and down the ticket.

 

CD – 7 and CD – 8 both have Democratic incumbents and are rated as Toss-Ups.  Both Susan Wild, in CD – 7, and Matt Cartwright, in CD – 8, have GOP leaning districts (PVI’s of R+2 and R+4 respectively), but they’ve been hanging on for several elections now.  If either one loses, it’s not a good night for Dems, but if both hang on easily, it suggests a rather good night for us.  Watch also for the Harris margins in these districts – if they help Harris carry their Districts, that’s a very good sign for us.

 

Lastly, CD – 10 is one to watch with particular intensity.  GOP incumbent Scott Perry has been a leader in the Freedom Caucus, and is probably one of the unindicted co-conspirators in the January 6 trials.  His district, centered around Harrisburg, is R+5, so it should be relatively safe, but it’s rated as a Toss-Up.  All that negative publicity may finally be coming home to roost.  An early October poll put Democrat Janelle Stelson nearly 10% ahead of Perry.  A Democratic victory here would be a major assist in taking control of the House, and a real blessing to remove one of the more odious Freedom Caucus instigators.

 

Lastly, New York, unlike its east coast neighbors, doesn’t close their polls until 9 pm (6 pm our time).  It’s a given that Harris will win, but the state has at least 6 House seats that could determine control. 

 

CD - 1 covers the eastern part of Long Island.  GOP incumbent Nick LaLota has an R+4 district and is rated as “Likely” GOP; but his Democratic challenger, Jon Avlon, is polling within a few points and running a strong race.  An upset here definitely says Dems win the House; a strong LaLota showing suggests polls have undercounted GOP voters; a LaLota win by 2 – 3% suggests polling has been relatively accurate.

 

In CD – 4, GOP incumbent Anthony D’Esposito is expected to lose to Democrat Laura Gillen (it’s already considered a “Lean” Democratic seat, so that gain is already baked into the calculations). 

 

In CD – 17, GOP incumbent Mike Lawler is facing Democrat Mondaire Jones, who represented the general area in 2021-2022, prior to redistricting.  Lawler won his 2022 election by about a half a percentage point.  This has been a major target of Democratic Red-to-Blue hopes, and both candidates have had substantial out of district funding.  It’s a D+3 district, but rated as “Lean” GOP.  Although the latest polling gives Lawler a 5% edge, that polling was done by Emerson, which seems to have at least a 3 – 4% GOP tilt this year.  A Democratic win here would strongly point to us taking control of the House. 

 

In CD – 18, Dem incumbent Pat Ryan should get re-elected; the seat is rated as “Lean” Dem.  If he is in trouble, that’s a bad omen for Dems. 

 

But in CD – 19, polls have had Dem challenger Josh Riley steadily ahead of GOP Incumbent Marcus Molinaro.  It’s rated as a Toss-Up, with an “even” PVI rating, so this is a big one.  A clear win by Riley bodes well for us; a win by Molinaro suggests we’ll have to rely on California to push the House Democratic.

 

Lastly, CD – 22 has been significantly redrawn, so incumbent GOP Brandon Williams is generally seen as a dead man walking.  The seat is rated as “Lean” Democrat, so it should be an easy win for our side, but that gain of one seat is also already baked in to most calculations about the House.

 

In sum, then, a gain of just 2 seats suggest status quo; a gain of three seats is helpful; a gain of 4 or 5 seats would mean we’ll get control of the House, and by a pretty substantial margin at that.

 

One last item worth noting is Florida, particularly the results for Measure 4, the reproductive rights amendment.  The rules in Florida require a 60% majority for state constitutional amendments.  Proponents are confident they’ll hit above 58%, but not entirely sure they’ll crack the 60% threshold needed for passage.  It may take quite a while to get results here, especially since a small portion of the panhandle is in the Central time zone, so their polls will close one hour later than the rest of the state.  But watching the fate of Measure 4 will tell us a lot about other reproductive rights amendments on the ballot (in Missouri, Arizona, Nevada, Montana and Nebraska, among other states).  If Measure 4 is garnering 62 – 65% of the vote, it’s hard to see how most of that doesn’t bleed over into the Presidential and Senate races.  My guesses on electoral vote totals have been based on that assumption – that these reproductive rights amendments are wildly popular, will draw out new voters and convert other voters in the suburbs.  Florida is the early test case of that theory.

 

So that’s it – your personal key to decrypting the early results.  I’m still convinced we should be making reservations in DC for the January inauguration.

 

 

P.S.:  David Plouffe just wrote on X that late-deciding voters are “breaking by double digits” for the Dems.  This is exactly the result you’d expect from an effective ground game, particularly when the other side doesn’t have one.  Moreover, it’s too late for them to try to respond or counteract this advantage.  Trump’s miserliness is coming home to roost.