Dems to President Trump: WE’RE BAAAACK!!!

Political Notes

by Jon Fuhrman

Wednesday, November 5. You have undoubtedly heard that Democrats scored a HUGE victory Tuesday, winning races across the country. But I’m not sure the media reports have done justice to how broad and deep the victory was, and how dramatic the message is to what is, or at least used to be, the Republican mainstream.

Let’s start in Virginia. Former Congressmember Abigail Spanberger was predicted to win the Gubernatorial race. She led the polls consistently, with a 5 – 10% edge. The actual result: 15%, significantly exceeding the polling and winning more votes than any gubernatorial candidate in Virginia history. Our Lt. Governor candidate won as well, with a smaller margin of merely 11%. And even our Attorney-General candidate won with a 6% margin, in a race where some polls had the GOP candidate ahead. This race is particularly noteworthy. Our candidate, Jay Jones, had years ago posted some really unfortunate remarks. Actually, decades ago, those remarks would have utterly sunk his campaign, and his career. They were unforgivably intemperate and just overall icky. But in today’s world, for better or worse, tribal allegiance dominates, and Jones prevailed over a true Trumper, incumbent Jason Miyares, who would have been an AG in the style of Texas’ Ken Paxton.

But that’s not the only good news. In Virginia, the entire lower house of the state legislature, their House of Delegates, was up for election (their State Senate have 4 year terms, but not staggered, so no State Senate seats were up this year). Dems had a narrow 51 – 49 edge in the House. The results: a swing of 13 seats, giving Dems a 64 to 36 majority. The Virginia state Dems had been telling donors and supporters that they were hoping for a 6 – 8 seat swing, but they won every single seat they seriously contested. If this were the US House, that would equate to a swing of about 60 seats. Dems were outperforming the polling, the 2024 results, and even Biden’s 2020 percentages (where he had won the state with 54%, a 10% edge, the best showing since FDR in 1944). Most importantly, those legislative wins weren’t just centered in metro areas or the northeast area around Washington, DC. They were spread throughout the state, in rural areas, exurbs, suburbs. This was a broad, consistent, state-wide and deep movement against the status quo and the incumbent national administration.

Moving on to New Jersey, Congressmember Mikie Sherrill was predicted to win, but the polling showed a pretty tight race, from as low as a 3% margin to a more comfortable 6% edge. The result: Sherrill wins 56.2%, a 13% edge, blasting past not just the current polling but historic patterns.  The GOP candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, had run in 2021, against the incumbent Dem Phil Murphy, gaining 48%; this time, it was only 43.2%. Harris, in 2024, won with only 52%; Biden carried the state in 2020 with 57.3%. Looking a little deeper in to the NJ results, Passaic County has the largest share of Latino voters in the state – nearly 45%.  In 2024, President Trump carried the county by 3%; this time, Sherrill won by 15%. Indeed, every single county showed a swing in votes to the Dem side, from 1.5% in heavily Rep counties to 22% in Hudson County, which Sherrill won by a 50 point margin. So much for the GOP making permanent inroads into the minority vote. 

Looking downballot, as in Virginia, the New Jersey State Assembly was up for election. Their Assembly has 80 seats, with the two highest vote-getters elected from each of 40 districts (yes, seems like an odd way to do things, but that’s New Jersey). Dems had a substantial majority, 52- 28, so pretty much no one was focused on how we’d do. In fact, though, it looks like we will increase our majority to at least 57 – 23, with some races still close enough that we could pick up a few more seats. Again, like Virginia, but perhaps even more pronounced, Dems clobbered the Reps all over the state, up and down the ballot.

Now to Pennsylvania. Their Supreme Court has 7 seats, and Justices face confirmation elections (YES / NO votes on whether to retain them) every 10 years. Three Justices, all Dems, were up. The GOP had poured a ton of dollars into the attempt to oust them, hypocritically calling for “term limits” or just asking GOP voters to oust them. As you’ll remember, President Trump narrowly carried Pennsylvania in 2024, by just under 2%, and in 2016, by a half-percent, while Biden carried the state in 2020 by barely 1%. So there was a real worry that the GOP could oust the 3 Dems from the Court. The Dem Governor, Josh Shapiro, would appoint Dem replacements, but they would have to be confirmed by the State Senate, controlled by the GOP. So a successful GOP campaign could deadlock the Court. 

What happened? Each Justice was confirmed by a 60% - 40% margin.  In a state like Pennsylvania, with its history of razor-close elections, this is huge. Granted, confirmation elections typically go the incumbent with little controversy. But the President himself was urging voters to oust the Justices, so this was a clear, state-wide rebuke to the GOP.

Moving on to Georgia; wait, no one was talking about Georgia. They had two races for their Public Utility Commission; the state is divided into 5 districts, and two of those districts – one covering the greater Atlanta area, and one covering Savannah and the northeast quadrant of the state – were being contested.  In each case, by a 63% - 37%, margin, the Democrat ousted the GOP incumbent. No Democrat had been elected to this Commission since 2007. Although Commissioners have to live in the District they represent, the election is a state-wide contest. Notwithstanding the relatively modest turnout, the wins, and the decisive margins, in both contested districts must send a message that not just blue-purple states like Virginia are trending away from the GOP. For those Georgia Reps savoring a state-wide race against Sen. Jon Ossoff in 2026 (the most endangered Democratic Senate incumbent), the odds just got a whole lot less attractive.

In Maine, a really nasty measure to require photo IDs for voting and dramatically restrict absentee and early voting failed by 64% – 36%. A “red flag” measure to allow courts to prohibit persons thought to be a threat to themselves, their families or others from possessing firearms passed by a 63% - 37% margin. (Note to Sen. Susan Collins: perhaps now is a really good time to think about retirement.)

Lastly, in California, Prop. 50 passed with 63.8% support, beating both President Biden’s 63.5% vote tally and Vice-President Harris’ 58.5% tally. Once again, the erosion of Democratic support that President Trump achieved appears to have vanished, perhaps never to return. And one last point, either to add insult to injury or to put the cherry on top – JD Vance’s half-brother Cory Bowman was running for Mayor of Cincinnati, challenging the Democratic incumbent Aftab Pureval, but he got absolutely crushed, winning a mere 22% of the vote. So much for the MAGA universe. 

As we were basking in the glow of a mega-victory, the government was struggling in the U.S. Supreme Court to defend the President’s tariffs. During a 3 hour argument (way longer than usual), the government attorneys faced sharp and skeptical questioning from several of the conservative Justices, the Chief Justice included, suggesting that the tariffs could be in real trouble. Several questions focused on the “major questions doctrine”, which basically suggests that if Congress is going to delegate a significant and substantial authority to the President, it needs to be quite explicit in its language. In this case, the Government is arguing that when Congress delegates to the President the authority to “regulate” trade, that implicitly includes the authority to levy whatever tariffs the President decides are appropriate. That “implicit” argument seemed to be a major stumbling block for Justice Barrett, Justice Gorsuch and the Chief Justice.  

Even though the Court agreed to an expedited schedule for this case, it is unlikely they will rule before next year, despite the importance and the potential impact of this case. But the handwriting seems to be on the wall – the tariffs are likely unconstitutional, and we’ll have to sort out the damages later.

Now that Democrats have a national affirmation, my personal hope is that the Democratic Senators pass the continuing resolution and reopen the government. That might seem like a surrender to Trump. Actually, though, the existing continuing resolution is only good through November 17, a scant 11 days from now. So we could reopen the government, get everyone paid for their missed work, get SNAP benefits going again, and have all of one week to negotiate the issues around Medicaid and Food Stamps before the next shutdown starts all over again on Nov. 18. That’s not really a surrender; it’s more of a tactical maneuver to put even more pressure on Republican Senators, and Congressmembers, who now might see their previously safe districts, and states, as suddenly not so safe anymore, and perhaps see some benefits on finding common ground in a more humane budget deal.