Taking Back the Senate in 2026

Political Notes

by Jon Fuhrman

Wednesday, August 12. Last month I detailed why I thought our candidate would win the Texas Senate race, and pull other Dems to victory along with him, and I talked a little about Iowa. These are just parts of what I see as a Democratic wave that’s likely to give us 60 seats – not just 51 – in the Senate. But before I tackle Iowa and Alaska and Nebraska and Idaho, it is worth noting that mainstream pundits are, slowly but surely, catching up to my irrational exuberance and optimism.

Nate Silver just came out with a final mid-term prediction: 87% likelihood that Democrats take control of the US House of Representatives, coupled with a 57% chance they take control of the Senate. He didn’t assess the probability of 60 seats versus 51 seats, but at least pundits are beginning to concede that an absolutely huge Democratic wave seems to be building.

Of course, that’s hardly surprising. Just look at gas prices, food prices, the war with Iran, the President’s nonsensical obsessions with the East Wing ballroom and the Reflecting Pool. All the polling points to a steady loss of support and confidence. Now it’s true that one can question the polls – they haven’t been particularly successful in predicting several of the premier primary races (like the Democratic Senate race in Michigan, or the Gubernatorial race in Wisconsin, where David Crowley seems to be eking out a win by 0.4% when the polls put him 10 – 15 points behind). However, if you focus on the trend lines over time in the polls done by a single organization (say Reuters, or Fox News, or the Economist and YouGov), that eliminates the quirks associated with a particular polling methodology or implicit bias in their questions. When you do that, every one of the poll sequences shows a steady decline in support for, and confidence in, the President.

It seems to me that this trend is, if anything, likely to accelerate in the 83 days remaining before the November election. Inflation is rising, job losses are showing up, gas prices keep going up, Iran is happily taunting the President, Republican members of Congress are reading the tea leaves and starting to panic, and all of this creates an aura in which the President is beset, besieged, belittled, and bedraggled, and snoozing off during Cabinet meetings. It’s a vicious cycle, and I don’t see the President pulling himself, or his Administration, out of it.

While the President is on auto-destruct, the Democrats are fielding some extraordinary candidates who seem to be connecting with their voters in genuine, positive ways. First off, keep an eye on Iowa. It’s not just our Senate candidate, Josh Turek, the Paralympic two-time Gold Medalist, who is moving ahead in his race. (By the way, President Obama cut a simply wonderful, two-minute campaign commercial with Josh, with them in a gym shooting hoops; use this link -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-_AHDyD3AA – to watch it. It’s fun, inspiring, heart-warming all at once, and if you want to impress the “manosphere”, I think this does it.) The Democratic candidate for Governor, Rob Sand (who was twice elected state-wide as State Auditor), has been consistently polling ahead, and Inside Elections just moved the race from a “Toss-Up” to “Tilt Democratic”. Furthermore, Democrats have three outstanding women running for Congress in the state; Cook rates two of those races as “Toss-Ups”, with the third as a “Lean Republican.”

In Alaska, Dems also have a stellar candidate for Senate in Mary Peltola. She won the state-wide House seat in 2022 (defeating Sarah Palin), the first Native Alaskan ever to serve in Congress, then lost the seat in 2024. Cook rates her race also as a “Toss-Up”, recognizing her unique connections to Native American tribes and to the fishing industry. With Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, and two Republican candidates with identical names (Dan S. Sullivan, the incumbent Republican Senator, and Dan R. Sullivan, a retired teacher), Peltola seems to have an excellent chance of emerging victorious in November.

Idaho and Nebraska are two deeply red states, and it seems odd to expect a Democrat to win a Senate seat in either state. So it’s not terribly surprising that the Democratic candidate in each state has suspended their campaign. But what’s really interesting is that there is an Independent Senate candidate in each state who may well defeat the incumbent Republican.

In Nebraska, Dan Osborn is running again. He lost in 2024 by 7% but has a stronger and better financed campaign this year, with tacit support from the Democratic establishment. Given the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on farm communities, Osborn would seem to have a decent shot. The state has an R+10 rating, but Cook changed the rating from “Solid R” to “Likely R” when the Democrat dropped out. No question the race is a long-shot, but if a Democratic wave overperforms by 10 – 15 points (as we have pretty consistently done in special elections around the country), then seats like this one are a definite possibility.

Idaho would seem to be an even tougher nut to crack for any non-Republican, but Todd Achilles is on trajectory for what could be a stunning upset. He, and others in the Democratic Party structure there, were able to convince the Democratic candidate to stand aside. (Early polling had shown that the Democratic Party label was lethal in Idaho, but that the same candidate without that label could poll quite well against MAGA Republican incumbents.)

Achilles has raised over $1 million so far (which may be peanuts in Texas or Ohio, but goes a really long way in Idaho where the one media market is Boise) and gathered over 1500 volunteers so far. Achilles had been elected as a Democrat to the State Assembly, but gave up the seat and party identification to become an Independent and run for the Senate. Even though Idaho is an R+18 state (normally out of reach for any non-Republican), and Cook rates the seat as “Safe Republican”, internal polling seems to show a tight race. I think he’s going to do it. An Army vet (who commanded a tank in Afghanistan) who came back, worked successfully in a couple of Silicon Valley tech start-ups, and then returned to Idaho, Achilles seems to be connecting to folks who are tiring of the MAGA drama. So, despite the tall hill to climb, I’m counting Idaho among the 60 Senate seats that Democrats (and Independents) will win in November.