Texas Going Blue??

Political Notes

by Jon Fuhrman

Sunday, June 7. ACT’s membership endorsed Xavier Becerra for Governor, and undoubtedly that was the key element propelling him into first place in the gubernatorial primary. Well, perhaps not the key element, but I suspect it was illustrative of the decision-making among Democrats writ large. Whether they knew him from his decades of public service, or saw him as steady and dependable, if not flashy or exuberant, or they figured that, after 35 years in public life with no hint of scandal or inappropriate behavior, he was a safe and known commodity, voters coalesced behind him.

As of this evening, with 72% of the vote counted, Becerra has moved into first place with a 1.3% edge over Steve Hilton; all indications are that trend will continue, and Hilton, running 4.4% ahead of Steyer, will almost surely remain the second place finisher and get a place in the November general election. For Democrats, that’s the ideal race. Not only will Becerra romp to victory, he’ll have the ability to focus resources on the ground in the 10 or so Congressional districts that Democrats need to flip to ensure control of the House.

Talking about Congress, last month I rashly asserted that the real question was whether Democrats (and independents) can get not just a majority of the U.S. Senate, but 60 votes, enough to overcome the current rules on filibusters. I promised more details in future columns, so let’s start with Texas. (And, btw, even Steve Bannon is now predicting the GOP will lose the Senate.)

Most mainline pundits will say Texas is just a bridge too far, a perennial possibility that always, just always, disappoints. They argue that someone always says this year will be different – and it never was. Well, here are six reasons why I think this year will, indeed, be different. The first five were neatly summarized in a column in Electoral-Vote.com, one of my favorite pundit columns, but the last one has been overlooked by pretty much everyone.

First, Texas actually isn’t that bad. Trump won by 56% - 42% in 2024, but only 52% - 46% in 2020. The whole state is only R+6, well within reach for a blue wave. Second, consider the turnout in the run-off election. Paxton’s vote count basically equals the votes he got in the primary. GOP turnout cratered (not surprisingly) in the run-off, but that drop came pretty much from Cornyn’s side. That might suggest that, while hard-core MAGA voters came back, many RINO/Bush/moderate right-wing voters stayed home. If they didn’t vote for Paxton this time, a reasonable number might not vote for Paxton in November, and that’s all Talarico needs.

The third point is that Talarico seems exceptionally talented as a politician. For example, in response to attacks about being a Vegan (which wouldn’t go over well in Texas), Talarico responded: “C’mon. I’ve been eating barbeque since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment.” The worst thing for a politician is when folks starting laughing at you, rather than with you, so this is a pretty effective take-down of Paxton. And that takes us to the fourth point, which is the degree to which Ken Paxton is uniquely burdened by sleaze – not just political graft and outright corruption, having been impeached by his GOP colleagues in the State House, but being sued by his wife for divorce on “biblical grounds”. Paxton succeeded in postponing the divorce trial, so it won’t be going on in the middle of his campaign, but it still undermines his credentials with the family values crowd.

Finally, the fifth point is the current infrastructure of the Democratic Party. When Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Ted Cruz in 2018, the Democratic Party organization in Texas was pretty moribund. But he’s been working for the last 3 years building it back up. As an example, often legislative seats in deeply red districts are uncontested. This year, Beto recruited a Democratic candidate for every seat, no matter how red. There is evidence that having a Democratic legislative candidate, even in a hopelessly red seat, boosts Dem turnout and vote by 5 – 10%, and those votes accumulate for the state-wide ticket. “Lose by less”, a mantra popularized by Ben Wikler when he was Wisconsin Democratic Party State Chair in talking about deeply red districts, turns out to be a hugely powerful strategy, and Talarico (and other Dems running state-wide) will be reaping the benefit of that work.

Last, Talarico has a secret weapon that’s been overlooked by most pundits. That secret weapon is Bo French. French ran in the primary against an incumbent GOP member of the Texas Railroad Commission, which might seem like a quaint political backwater, but in Texas the Railroad Commission regulates all oil and gas production and transportation. That would be a relatively big deal here in California, but in Texas, it’s absolutely huge. The incumbent, who was a bit to the right of George Bush, was supported not just by the big oil and gas folks like Exxon and Mobil, but also by Gov. Abbot and the Lt. Governor and Atty. Gen. And yet he lost, to Bo French, who is malignantly Islamophobic and wants to deport 100 million people – yes, that’s right, 100 million, or about 1 in every 3 people. Now even in Texas, you have to think that campaign line won’t go over well, and Talarico can hang it around Paxton’s neck and the neck of every Republican running for office in Texas. In fact, I’m guessing that Talarico will have such broad reaching coattails that he will carry Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate for Governor, into office and might even flip the Texas State House, where Democrats need to pick up 14 of the 88 seats held by Republicans.

Next month, I’ll explore the Senate races in Iowa, Nebraska and Alaska, as we inch up toward 60 Democratic seats. Iowa, in particular, is really interesting. Josh Turek won the Democratic primary. He’s truly a remarkable candidate – a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, elected to the State House of Reps from the most conservative district won by a Democrat in Iowa, and someone who has a gift for connecting with people.

As it turns out, I was in Iowa last weekend, for an event hosted by the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, State Auditor Rob Sand. The big draw was Gov. Andy Beshear, who was there ostensibly in his role as Chair of the Democratic Governors Association to support Rob Sand’s candidacy. So of course I went up to him and gave him my card, and said to call me when he was ready to campaign in California, and he said he would – no hesitation, no cagey statements that it was too early, just a plain yes. So there is no doubt he does indeed plan to run for President.

Then I continued and said my dream ticket for the Democrats was Andy Beshear and Jon Ossoff, the Dem. Senator from Georgia (who, by the way, has been giving some real barn-burner speeches in his re-election campaign, has amassed a ton of money, and has moved public perception of his campaign from the most endangered Democrat to one who may not merely win, but pull lots of Democrats along with him on his coattails). Gov. Beshear paused, looked up, and then said “I’d be the older one.” To me, that means Beshear has been thinking about running, thinking about VP’s, about the typical Dem heavy-weights (like Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, or Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, or Pete Buttigieg, or numerous others) but they are all older than he is. A ticket with Beshear and Ossoff could bring Kentucky and Georgia along, and capture the youthful spirit that infused the Clinton - Gore ticket. So you heard it here first – Beshear / Ossoff is our 2028 ticket.