You may remember that Ben Wikler is one of my favorite people. He’s been the Chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party for the last 7 years, and he has done, to my mind, just an incredibly impressive job in building a grassroots infrastructure that will have a lasting impact in Wisconsin.
You know Wisconsin is the swingiest of the “Blue Wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin), one where Democrats have been winning or losing by the slimmest of margins. Just as a reminder, you can see below how tight some of the races have been – at least until 2022.
Election / Year | Winner | Percentage Margin | Vote Margin | Total Votes Cast |
Presidential - 2016 | Trump (R) | 0.75% | 23,000 | 2.79 million |
Governor – 2018 | Evers (D) | 1.1% | 29,000 | 2.62 million |
Presidential – 2020 | Biden (D) | 0.63% | 20.700 | 3.25 million |
Governor -2022 | Evers (D) | 3.4% | 92,000 | 2.63 million |
Supreme Ct. – 2023 | Protasiewicz (D) | 11.0% | 203,000 | 1.84 million |
Starting in 2022, the Democrats’ ground game really started kicking in. And it paid huge dividends in 2023, when, in an off-year, low-turnout April election, liberal Janet Protasiewicz was elected to the State Supreme Court, giving liberals a 4 – 3 working majority. Democrats promptly brought a suit alleging unconstitutional gerrymandering of the Legislature (where the GOP had nearly a 2/3 majority in each house despite the close division of the vote statewide). The Court ordered a new set of districts, and this year Dems have a chance to nearly even out the Legislature, and maybe even flip the State Assembly.
With this background, I wanted to share a memo from Ben Wikler about what’s happening on the ground in Wisconsin. He’s optimistic, albeit guardedly so. I’m also optimistic, but not at all guardedly – I think we are so going to kick butt in Wisconsin. But I thought I’d let Ben give you an update in his own words. He writes:
Dear supporters and allies,
The election ends one week from now. The polls and models agree: Wisconsin is a toss-up.
But—at every level of the ballot, based on what we’re seeing and doing on the ground—I’d rather be a Democratic candidate in Wisconsin than a Republican one.
We won’t know the outcome of the election until the ballots are counted, but one thing we do already know is that we’ve run the most intensive operation in our history. You’ve made that possible. And we know our allies and partners have done the same. I wanted to take a second, as we sprint through the finish line and take nothing for granted, to send you an update on the state of play here, an overview of our efforts… and to convey our gratitude.
The state of play in toss-up Wisconsin
POLLING
Public polls have this election tied. Here are the polling averages for Wisconsin:
FiveThirtyEight: Harris +0.4
VoteHub: Harris +0.1
New York Times: Harris +0.6
270toWin: Harris +0.4
DecisionDesk HQ: Harris +0.5
RealClearPolitics: Trump +0.3
Internal polls here say the same thing. Razor-thin margin. Jump ball.
Tammy Baldwin’s Senate race is similarly close: the RealClearPolitics average puts Baldwin +1, DecisionDesk HQ has Baldwin +1.1, FiveThirtyEight has Baldwin +3.
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District is considered one of the tightest in the country.
And in the state legislature, CNalysis gives Democrats a 32% chance of winning the Assembly majority, predicting 51 GOP and 48 Dem seats (a 13-seat Dem pickup!), and predicts Dems will win 3-4 State Senate seats. They list Wisconsin’s SD-8, Jodi Habush Sinykin vs Duey Stroebel, now the most expensive state Senate race in Wisconsin history, as a toss-up.
EARLY VOTE
Putting the pandemic year of 2020 aside, early vote numbers have been massive record-smashers—and tell us one clear thing: the bottom hasn’t fallen out for either side.
You can read the data in different ways—both Republicans and Democrats have reasons to be excited and reasons to worry. But my gut is that what we’re seeing so far is reason for anxious optimism.
With a week out, 988,309 early and mail-in ballots have already been cast, vastly eclipsing the final early + mail numbers in 2008, 2012, and 2016 (and, of course, every midterm).
In-person early voting has been highest in the red WOW counties [suburbs surrounding Milwaukee] (a possible warning sign). But 86% of in-person early voters are people who vote in every presidential and midterm race, suggesting this may mostly be a time-shift rather than an expanded electorate.
Meanwhile, women are outvoting men in both in-person and mail-in voting, with an even larger gap than we saw in 2022.
Our models suggest a commanding Democratic lead among mail-in voters, which means Election Night is likely to include a “red mirage/blue shift” effect, as in 2020, where Trump initially takes a lead, which then disappears as absentee ballots in cities like Milwaukee are finally counted in the middle of the night. (Note that Republicans killed a bill that would’ve allowed for earlier processing of absentee ballots.)
ORGANIZING AND GOTV
The ground operation in Wisconsin—a grassroots effort built year-round over the last seven and a half years, with your help—has been massive. In the last week, we’ve knocked on more than 400,000 voters’ doors and called more than a million Wisconsin voters.
Over the course of the year, the Democratic coordinated campaign has now knocked on more than two million doors and called more than 4.5 million voters by phone in Wisconsin—on top of tens of thousands of friend-to-friend relational contacts and enormous efforts by allied groups on the ground here.
We’re getting consistent feedback that, in this final stretch, the data is clean and well-targeted, and we’re seeing enthusiastic support for Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin within our Get Out The Vote universe—an indication that there’s no late break against either of our statewide candidates. The key in the final stretch is turning out every possible supporter.
VIBES ON THE GROUND
Qualitatively, the vibes are excellent.
I’ve visited 32 counties in the last ten days and met with dozens of organizing staff and hundreds of volunteers—as well as knocking on doors myself. In every region of the state, our volunteers and staff have told me that they’re seeing many more previous Trump supporters switching to support Harris than formerly Democratic voters switching to support Trump. This is most pronounced among women, but it’s also been visible among men.
Another striking data point is what we’re not seeing: there appears to be no serious statewide coordinated ground game on the Republican side. As has been widely reported, the Trump campaign outsourced most of its field efforts to outside groups. We have scattered reports of seeing these groups in neighborhoods around Wisconsin, but nothing close to the level that we’ve seen in previous cycles, and far fewer sightings of GOP lit tucked in doorways. What evidence we do have of GOP field activity indicates a highly fragmented landscape, with Elon Musk’s America PAC only knocking for Trump, Americans For Prosperity only canvassing for Hovde [the GOP Senatorial candidate running against incumbent Tammy Baldwin], and individual candidates and county parties running their own programs.
In contrast, Democratic field efforts are using evidence-based scripts that cover the full Democratic ticket and end with conversations about plans to vote, volunteering, and vote tripling. Allied groups are doing the same thing.
Meanwhile, in region after region of the state, volunteers and voters have shared with me the same thing I’ve seen with my own eyes: the once-omnipresent sea of Trump yard, barn, and roadside signs has ebbed, and Harris-Walz signs have flooded in. Signage is an imperfect signal, but to the extent that it tells us something, it points towards high Democratic enthusiasm.
HISTORIC INVESTMENTS FROM WISDEMS
This year, your support has made it possible for WisDems to raise and invest more than $17 million in the coordinated campaign to elect Harris-Walz and Democratic candidates up and down the ballot; $20 million in state legislative campaigns; $6 million to support the Baldwin campaign; and nearly $2 million in US House races. This outstrips every record we’ve previously set, and—while we haven’t had time to check the numbers comprehensively—is likely more than any state party in American history.
We face a massive wall of resources from the nation’s wealthiest GOP donors at every level of the ballot this year. Neither our funding nor our organizing can guarantee a victory. But as we sprint through this closing week, we know that, with your help, we’ve been able to move mountains, and that we’ll be leaving it all on the field. The day after the election, win or lose, we’ll wake up without regrets. Every staff member, partner group, elected official, candidate, donor, and volunteer who has been a part of this effort will know that they gave it all they had.
With seven days left, the feeling at the tip of my fingertips is that this election might be frighteningly close—but that we’re going to win.
With gratitude and solidarity,
Ben
Ben Wikler
Chair, Democratic Party of Wisconsin
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