Thursday, August 29. It’s been a week since the convention, long enough to have some perspective on that remarkable week and the immediate aftermath. I know some people accuse me of conspicuous, even irrational, optimism, but you have to admit, you could hardly have scripted events to turn out better than they have.
Convention week was, inarguably, a tour de force. There were a few bumps in the road – Monday night ran too long, with President Biden’s speech (which was actually pretty good) pushed way beyond most people’s bedtimes. Other than that, the staging was superb, the choreography and theater held your attention, we paid tribute to all our living ex-Presidents, political leaders big and small were highlighted, and the speeches were really pretty solid. Most importantly, Gov. Walz and Vice-President Harris successfully introduced themselves to the voters and made the case for the Democratic ticket. They looked Presidential. They looked comfortable, secure in themselves, secure in the case they were making, with families to whom one could relate, lives that were admirable, and a dedication to public service that rang true.
Further, pretty much nothing during the week distracted our attention from the convention. Former President Trump was strangely quiet, reduced to his usual assortment of negative tweets that attracted relatively little attention. More critically, the demonstrations outside the convention center, which many had thought would rival the 1968 events in Chicago, were a total non-event. Far fewer people than expected showed up to participate; what demonstrations there were turned out to be both peaceful and well away from the Convention Center. The only significant attention to the war in Gaza came when the Vice-President herself mentioned it in her acceptance speech.
I do, though, want to take note of what she said about the bloodshed in Gaza. American policy has always been to support a two-state solution. Yet, we virtually always glide over what is implicit within that statement. “Two states” means an Israeli state and a Palestinian state; that implies we consider the Palestinians as a people with the right to self-determination, a right to their own nation, a right to be an independent entity. Yes, there are non-trivial details to be settled: what happens to Jerusalem; what are the exact boundaries in the West Bank; how do we ensure the military security both of the Palestinian state and of Israel.
But, despite our continued use of the “two-state solution” phraseology, it is rare for our leaders or diplomats to go beyond the simple affirmation of that principle and address the underlying elements. The Vice-President, though, in her acceptance speech, did just that. As part of a larger passage recognizing Israel’s right to exist and right to defend itself, especially against the horror that Hamas inflicted, she said:
“At the same time, what has happened in Gaza over the past 10 months is devastating. So many innocent lives lost. Desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, over and over again. The scale of suffering is heartbreaking.
President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity. Security. Freedom. And self-determination.”
I don’t recall any Administration official being quite so explicit in recognizing both the suffering in Gaza and asserting that the Palestinians have an inherent right to self-determination and nationhood. She did just that. It may not be enough to satisfy some of those demonstrating against the suffering in Gaza and against our implicit responsibility for that by virtue of the arms we sell to Israel. But it is farther than anyone else has gone, and it may temper some of the opposition to the Democratic ticket within the American Palestinian community, especially in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The convention does seems to have struck a chord with voters, as the Democratic ticket raised another $80 million last week. That puts the aggregate number well past $500 million. That’s important not just because it annoys Donald Trump no end; it also gives the campaign the luxury of competing in “stretch” states – North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and maybe even Florida and Ohio – while not short-changing the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
This week, we’re beginning to see the results of a tidal shift in public opinion. National polling is starting to show Harris-Walz with a 2 or 3, or even 5, point lead. State by state polling is showing narrow leads in almost all the battleground states. More critically, looking at the change over time among the polls done by the same organization (which corrects for inherent biases and differing estimates of the likely voter turnout), across the board the momentum is consistently and sharply in our favor. Every poll is ticking upward, and my guess is that the typical post-convention bounce won’t dissipate. The timelines for the campaign are too compressed, with the debate coming in just two weeks and tonight’s CNN interview with Vice-President Harris and Gov. Walz.
And talking about that interview, which many commentators had seen as a major challenge for our ticket, Harris and Walz did just fine. There were a couple of the aggressive questions, where Dana Bash tried to nail the Vice-President on some policy changes (such as her former opposition to fracking, which could rile up Pennsylvania voters) or nail Walz on some misstatements or past misbehavior, but Harris and Walz deflected them without rancor or discomfort. Critically, both seemed, again, comfortable, secure, confident and Presidential. They looked the role. The Vice-President, in particular, blended a light-hearted intimacy with a clear grasp of the issues and, when appropriate, a deeply serious tone. They looked the part.
The snippets of their bus tour in southern Georgia that CNN included only added to the impression that these are candidates connecting with ordinary voters, concerned about the needs and desires of those voters, and willing to ask voters of all kinds for their support.
Everything I’ve seen these last two weeks reaffirms my prediction of 377 Electoral Votes for the Harris-Walz ticket. However, if you’re looking for a “crowd-sourced”, market-driven prediction of how the election will go, you can, instead, follow the price of the Trump Media and Technology stock (ticker symbol DJT). This is the company that owns Truth Social, and which recently announced quarterly revenue of $880,000 and a quarterly loss of $16 million. It was to be the financial savior of Donald Trump, who owns a massive number of shares. Back in January, it was trading at $60 per share. Then, in July, it was trading at $30 - $40 per share.
Most people recognize that the stock will be quite valuable if Donald Trump wins the Presidency, but that it may well go bankrupt if he loses. Today, the stock closed at under $20 per share, an all-time low. Many who bought the stock at $50 - $60 per share apparently are recognizing that they will do better getting $20 per share than zero. As the perception of Donald Trump’s electoral chances declines, so will the stock price. So it looks like the “market” either read my latest Political Notes column, or is independently coming to the same conclusion – time to book rooms for the Harris-Walz inauguration in January.
JON FUHRMAN
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